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Autonomous Vehicles Are Approaching – Place Your Bets!
Waymo and Tesla are the leading U.S. Autonomous Vehicle Manufacturers
- Waymo: Operates fully autonomous (Level 4) vehicles in select cities, utilizing lidar, radar, and cameras. Fully driverless taxis in Phoenix and San Francisco, emphasizing safety and redundancy. Their strength lies in precision, safety, and a cautious, geofenced rollout strategy2.
- Tesla: Offers Level 2 driver-assist with vision-only cameras, relying on neural networks and frequent updates. Not fully autonomous; requires driver supervision. Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system is more ambitious in scope but still classified as Level 2 autonomy. It relies on a vision-only approach (no LiDAR), aiming for broad scalability across diverse environments. Tesla’s edge is its massive fleet data and rapid iteration, but it still requires human supervision.
- Tesla feeds millions of vehicles’ camera images into their Data Center/AI to train their Autonomous Software and Vehicles
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- Waymo cars are estimated to cost over $300,000.00 each due to their capital-intensive approach. Tesla is utilizing existing vehicles costing < $50,0000.00.
- BYD: While BYD is a global EV powerhouse, its autonomous driving tech lags behind leaders like Baidu and WeRide. BYD focuses more on integrating ADAS (Advanced Driver-Assistance Systems) and partnerships rather than developing full-stack autonomy in-house.
- Baidu (Apollo): A major player in China’s autonomous vehicle (AV) scene, Baidu has been testing autonomous vehicles since 2015. However, its U.S. testing has declined sharply due to regulatory tensions. Domestically, Baidu remains a leader in robotaxi deployments and AI integration.
- WeRide: Making waves globally, WeRide launched fully driverless robotaxi trials in Abu Dhabi — the first of its kind in the Middle East. It operates across 30+ cities and holds permits in China, the UAE, Singapore, France, and the United States, signaling a serious global ambition.
- Pony.ai: With roots in both China and Silicon Valley, Pony.ai is pushing hard on Level 4 autonomy and has a growing international footprint.
Too Early To Pick A Winner
I project multiple manufacturers, including Tesla, Waymo, and several Chinese manufacturers, to gain significant market share in autonomous vehicles.
Disclosure: I own both Tesla and GOOG stock.
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I am a proud nerd (as my beautiful wife and daughter have told me), investment and finance blogger with an NC. State, Chemical Engineering, Rutgers University, MBA, and Harvard University, Advanced Management education.
I left a corporate career because I desired to make a difference as a speaker and writer. I was blessed to be coached and mentored by strong women and men in my family and professional life. It is my time to serve and give back.
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